What will happen to the S&P 500 index? Forecast from JPMorgan’s Chief Strategist

According to JPMorgan’s chief strategist, Marco Kolanovic, the S&P 500 index could face a 20% crash. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is trading at around 4300 points. This warning is based on high interest rates, which, if they remain at this level, could lead to difficulties. Although the labor market is still stable, consumers are already experiencing stress, as seen in credit card and auto loan delinquencies.

Currently, the S&P 500 index has already declined and is likely to continue falling. Since the end of July, the benchmark has fallen by 7.5%. While a major sell-off in the market has not yet begun, it is possible in the future. However, in the near term, a rebound in the index is possible, and JPMorgan strategists do not rule out the possibility of a 5-7% stock market growth.

However, there is a risk of a 20% crash in the S&P 500. The majority of the index’s growth has been driven by the rally of the seven largest technology companies’ stocks, but they are also vulnerable to potential stock market sell-offs in the event of a recession. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also expressed concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the stock market.

The forecast of JPMorgan’s chief strategist and the concerns of other major banks raise doubts about the stability of the S&P 500 index in the near future. Investors may be interested in evaluating their portfolios and developing strategies to mitigate the risks associated with a potential stock market crash.

Analytical report:

• In light of the warning from JPMorgan’s chief global market strategist about a possible 20% crash in the S&P 500 index, it becomes clear that the stock market faces a serious risk. The main cause of such a crash could be high interest rates, which create difficulties in avoiding a recession.
• Despite the labor market still being stable, stress is already evident among consumers. Problems with credit card and auto loan delinquencies indicate the possibility of an impending recession. In the near future, there may be a rebound in the index following the release of macroeconomic reports. However, the risk of a 20% index crash should be taken into account.
• The majority of the S&P 500 index’s growth this year is attributed to the rise of large technology companies’ stocks, but they are also vulnerable to potential stock sell-offs in the event of a recession.
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also expressed concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the US stock market. This indicates that not only JPMorgan, but also other major financial institutions are concerned about the current market situation.

Overall, based on the provided information, it can be concluded that the S&P 500 index should be expected to experience some decline and a possible crash in the future. The stock market is at risk due to high interest rates and a potential recession. Investing in large technology companies’ stocks also carries risks associated with potential stock sell-offs.